By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Well, we had a warm front move through overnight, besides the light rain, the real evidence of this is in the temperatures. At midnight, the temperature was 46 degrees, by 07:00am this morning, it had warmed up to 52 degrees. The rain then transitioned to post-frontal scattered showers that persist and add a slight chance of thunderstorms with daytime heating and some unstable air moves in overhead. The winds today are southerly 8-12 gusting to 20, the high into the mid 50s.
Tonight, we see a trough of low pressure moving towards the coast along with a low pressure area to the west of, and moving towards Vancouver Island as it weakens. All this spells more showers and possible thunderstorms for the Pacific Northwest with some breezy southerly winds 10-15 gusting to near 25, the low near 45. The thunderstorm threat does diminish by around midnight tonight.
With the trough still influencing our weather tomorrow we will see more showers with the breezy southerly winds 10-15 gusting to 25, the high up near 52. The shower activity becomes more scattered overnight, the winds easing, becoming southerly 5-10, lows dropping to near 45.
By early Friday morning we see more rain moving in ahead of another warm front that gives us some easterly winds 10-15 gusting to near 25, the high up near 55, rainy with winds becoming southerly 14-18 gusting to near 30 overnight Friday, the low down near 48.
Saturday brings more clouds, breezy winds, and rain with the system that will have likely tapped into a subtropical moisture source that could bring up to 2 to 2 ½”” of rain for the two day period from Friday through Saturday. Saturday’s high temperatures near 58, the lows near 52.
From Sunday on, the forecast gets a little more difficult as not all the models agree on some finer details that will drive the weather forecast and outcome. There will be a ridge to the east and a trough to the west that the models just can’t agree on. The belief is that there will be an atmospheric river with the area of heavier rain pointed to the north of our area, thanks to the ridge of high pressure. If the ridge weakens or moves eastward then the hose, as I call it, will drift southward and impact our area more by Tuesday and Wednesday, and this would obviously also impact our river levels. If the ridge builds or moves west, then we see improving conditions with less rain. For now, it is just something to watch to see which models win.
So, for now we say, Sunday on, look for cloudy and rainy conditions, breezy at times, highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 50s.
