By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
With a pretty much zonal flow pointed at the Pacific Northwest, we will continue to see disturbances riding the flow, keeping us in an active pattern. This means we will continue to see periods of rain then rainshowers today, along with breezy westerly winds gusting to 18 thanks to yet another weak front pushing through, today’s high in the low to mid 50s. We see the showers become more scattered this afternoon, then widely scattered by this evening as a weak ridge of high pressure moves through. The winds becoming westerly 4-8, lows tonight near 40.
We will see a few more scattered showers tomorrow, but by tomorrow evening another cold front is approaching, pushing in some rain once again. The winds ahead of the front are southerly 8-12, the high temperature near 51. By tomorrow night, we will be rainy with the southerly winds increasing to 15-20 gusting to 35, the low near 40. Rainfall totals from this system in the area of 1 to 1 ½”, maybe up to 2” in the Coast Range.
The front pushes through by early Saturday morning, and this front has some colder air associated with it so we can expect the snow level, and the surface temperatures to be falling behind the front, with the colder westerly winds 8-12 gusting to 25, the high is only 48, and the snow level drops to near 2400’ which puts some snow in the higher Coast Range mountains. We could even see a rain/snow mix near the top of the passes. Also, the air aloft will be unstable so there is a slight chance of thunderstorms during the day. We can expect some more showers Saturday night, still a little breezy, with the overnight temperature falling to near 38, the snow level drops to near 2300’.
The scattered showers continue during the day Sunday, the snow level still hovering around 2300’, the high near 49. The showers slowly becoming more widely scattered Sunday night under mostly cloudy skies, then we see yet another system approaching, pushing in more rain after around midnight, but this does start to warm things up a little with the overnight low around 39, and the snow level lifting to near 2500’.
As for next week, in a word, wet! We have another front moving in on Monday so look for more cloudy, rainy, and breezy conditions with the high near 52, the low near 40. Tuesday the front itself moves through so we can expect cloudy, rainy, and windy conditions. This will be another cold-cold front so the high temperature Tuesday is back down to near 49, and we can again expect the snow levels to drop to near 2400’. The cloudy, rainy, and windy conditions remain Tuesday night, the snow level around 2200’, lows near 37. Remember, with the cold and the wind, the windchill will likely be in the upper 20s so dress appropriately.
By Wednesday morning the snow level is around 2000’, still rainy and breezy with that rain/snow mix possible in the Coast Range, the high near 47, then, we will need to keep an eye on the snow level for Wednesday night as it could drop below the pass levels.
There has already been some talk about low level snow. As is always the case for low level snow, the conditions have to be just right, with all the correct elements in place before this can happen. It is still pretty far out at this point but some of the models do suggest that low level snow is possible by Wednesday night, mainly over in the valley. For now, it is just something to watch to see if and how the forecast changes.
By the way, with all this weather offshore, it has produced some big westerly swells out in the ocean that will approach our coast on Friday. They will continue to build, possibly reaching 17-20’ offshore. These conditions would significantly increase the risk of high sneaker waves along our coast. As such, the National Weather Service has issued a Beach Hazard Statement about the threat, valid from late tonight through Sunday afternoon. They suggest that waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. So, keep off of jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an eye on them until help arrives. It complicates things when you have to rescue the rescuer!
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