By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
There were a few light showers moving across the area this morning that became more widely scattered by the afternoon. A quick look at the satellite picture though and we see a low pressure area moving into British Columbia with an associated front dropping south into Washington then westward into the Pacific. This front is expected to drop southward and push in more rain this evening with rain likely tonight. The front will slide through later tonight and this front has some cold, unstable air behind it so we will see some showers with a chance of some thunderstorms by around midnight. The southerly winds will be shifting to more northerly 5-10 around midnight also, and the low temperature tonight drops to near 38. It looks like we will be seeing snow in the higher Coast Range mountains by the early morning hours as the temperatures and snow level fall.
Tomorrow, we will see more showers and possible thunderstorms, and some of the heavier showers could produce small hail. We continue with the northerly winds 5-10 that do become more westerly later in the morning 5-10, the high only near 47, the snow level around 2500-2000’. It looks like more of the same tomorrow night, some showers with possible thunderstorms and a chance of small hail, the winds becoming northwesterly 10-15 gusting to 20, the low drops to 38 again, and the snow level is around 2300’.
Sunday a weak upper level ridge of high pressure will cause the showers to become more scattered and diminish the thunderstorm threat by around noon. The winds remain westerly 5-10, the high near 48. The showers become more widely scattered Sunday night, but then in comes some rain from the next approaching front late Sunday night, which is a warm front, and this pushes the snow level back up to near 2500’, the low again drops to near 38.
By Monday things are warming again, but still rainy and now breezy, the high near 53, the snow level pushes up above 3000’. Look for more warm rain Monday night, still breezy, the low only down to near 41.
On Tuesday, things start to get interesting as the associated cold front moves in, so we see more clouds, rain, and now some windy conditions, and the winds will be pushing in some colder air, so the temperatures fall, and so does the snow level, dropping to near 2400’ in the afternoon, the high near 49, we transition to showers with that thunderstorm threat in the unstable air again, the snow level drops to near 1800’ so it is likely the higher passes could see a rain/snow mix or some brief snow showers by later Tuesday night, the low down near 37.
Now Wednesday things get real interesting with questions about temperatures, and the snow level. It appears we have the potential to see an Arctic Airmass dropping down into the area. The questions not answered to clearly by the models is just how cold will we get, and with the rain still likely, just how low will the snow go. The model spreads are considerable. Some models actually warm things up some while other show things turning real cold with low level snow. For now, we will go with rainy and the snow level dropping down to at least the pass levels Wednesday night into Thursday. So if you plan to travel across any of the passes Wednesday night into Thursday, you will want to keep a close eye on the forecasts. Hopefully the models will come into better agreement by the start of next week.
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