By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Monday, October 30, 2023
Another chilly start to the day, and we saw another nice sunny one with the high pressure ridge still dominating the weather pattern and giving us fair, and mild conditions, and with a dry easterly wind. The ridge starts to weaken tonight with an approaching trough of low pressure pushing into the west side and nudging the ridge eastward. So, tonight we see some high clouds moving in, the east winds diminish, lows near 40.
Halloween still looks to be dry though we do see more clouds moving in bringing a partly sunny day, the winds becoming more southwesterly 4-8, the high near 63. Tomorrow night brings clouds skies with an approaching system, a slight chance of rain starts after midnight, light winds, lows near 45.
Wednesday on, it looks like we have a series of systems rotating across the area that will bring rain and sometime breezy conditions, off and on, through the weekend. The first one on Wednesday will not start out too bad as it is moving into our very dry airmass, but we are still likely to have rain by the afternoon Wednesday, the winds becoming southerly 5-10, highs near 62, then rainy, possibly foggy, and breezy that night, lows near 49.
This first system, a weak atmospheric river event, finally pushes through Thursday around noon with periods of moderate, occasionally heavy rain then leaving scattered showers in the afternoon, and I should mention, this system does give us some winds gusting to 25-35 in town, maybe 35-45 at the beaches. The afternoon high temperature is around 60. Some more showers expected Thursday night, lows near 50.
Friday the rain returns with another system that presents as an atmospheric river event also, bringing moderate to heavy rains again, the high near 60, lows near 48.
The weekend also looks wet, rainy Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms, windy again, highs near 59. We transition to showers Saturday night that persists through Sunday, still breezy, lows near 48.
So, how much rain will the area get. Unfortunately, the guidance puts Clatsop and Tillamook Counties under the hose. From Wednesday into Thursday the models suggest from 1-3” with up to 5” possible by Sunday. Given the amount of subtropical moisture the models suggest these systems have, we will need to watch for River Forecast changes as the events get closer. As far as the tides go, they are on the rise but not really high until later in the month.
Yes, there are some King Tides this month, they are on November 13-14, up near 9.7, then again November 24-25-26, up near 9.6.
Another significant event is scheduled for Sunday. On Sunday, November 5th, at 2:00am, Daylight Savings Time converts back to Standard Time, and we set the clocks back one hour. The good news is…we gain an extra hours sleep that morning. So, this is your first warning, remember to set your clocks back Saturday night before you go to bed or you will be late for Church Sunday!
