By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
The long, weak trough of low pressure has shifted east a little this morning with the axis now over the valley area. With the northerly flow along the coast though, there are weak disturbances riding down in the flow that will give us some occasional periods of light rain or drizzle today. With little changing, we can expect more of the same tonight, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, winds southwesterly 5-10, the low falling to near 38, with the snow level down around 2000 to 2500’ so the higher mountains could see some snow once again. If you plan travel across the Hwy 6 pass late tonight into the early morning hours, watch out for black ice as the temperature at the summit will be down close to freezing, and it will be seeing some drizzle also.
Tomorrow, we see the trough moving a little more to the east as a large ridge of high pressure builds out in the Pacific. This keeps us under a cooler northerly flow that continues to be somewhat moist so tomorrow will be another cloudy, drizzle day with some light rain possible as a disturbance drops though, the winds becoming westerly 4-8, and the afternoon high only up near 47. With that disturbance now over the area, we can expect some light rain tomorrow night, still the westerly winds 4-8, the low near 38, so the snow level will still be around 2000’, so there is a chance the summit may see some flurries or a mix of rain and snow in the early morning hours as the temperature again falls to near freezing across the top of the passes.
The unsettled weather continues Thursday so more rain is likely with the winds westerly 4-8, the high again up around 47, the snow level remains around 2000’. The chance of rain continues Thursday night though it does ease some by around midnight, the low near 36. So the summit temperature will possibly fall into the upper 20s to near 30 making some snow possible at times in or near the summit in the early morning hours though no accumulation is expected.
So, there has been some talk of low snow because a couple of the earlier models were suggesting this was possible. If it was going to take place, Friday morning would be the timeframe for it to happen. Using the odds given my National Weather Service friends, and depending on if you see the glass half full, or half empty, there is about a 10% chance of snow Friday morning, or about a 90% chance of just some rain, and this is down from what the models offered yesterday. That leaves Tillamook with a forecast for Friday of a chance of rain that morning that diminishes in the afternoon, with the return of partly sunny skies, the afternoon high near 48, the snow level that was around 2000’ that morning climbs to near 2500’ in the afternoon. We dry out some Friday night, and with some breaks in the clouds, the low dips to around 35.
Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your point of view, there appears to be little change in the weather pattern with the weekend seeing partly sunny days with highs near 52, and mostly cloudy nights, the lows down near 40, and still that chance of rain.