By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Today was the last, mild day before the ridge of high pressure starts building and pushes the temperature up over the weekend and into next week. Even with the increased onshore flow, the temperature will rise, especially over in the valley where they do not get that marine influence. A few disturbances ride over and flatten the ridge a little which helps the temperatures at the coast, but the ridge will continue to impact the valley temperature where that will likely be seeing afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s by Sunday and in the hundreds starting Monday. They could be looking at daytime temperature between 100-105 for Monday, Tuesday on into Wednesday, with highs in the upper 90s either side of that period. This also means that the Coast Range will see daytime temperatures up in the upper 90s to near 100 during that period also. Temperatures at night will not be a tremendous relief either with lows at the coast only down around 60, mid 60s in the Coast Range, and the upper 60s over in the valley.
With conditions already very dry, this high heat, low relative humidity period will bring critical fire conditions through the area, especially in the Coast Range and over in the valley, but as we saw a few years ago, the coast is not exempt from the dangers either. Add to this we could see some gusty easterly winds Sunday into Monday which would further lower the relative humidity over the area.
And that forecast you ask, well, we see a few clouds tonight with light winds, the low near 54, then the warmup starts. Tomorrow, we will see mostly sunny skies with the winds becoming northwesterly 10-15 gusting to 20-25, the high near 75, mostly clear skies tomorrow night, the winds ease late, lows near 57.
Sunny, with those winds becoming northeasterly 8-12 gusting to 20, Sunday, highs up near 87, mostly clear that night, the winds ease late, lows near 62.
As for next week, the sunny skies continue, the high Monday near 85, 82 for Tuesday and Wednesday, then some relief maybe by Thursday with the high “only” near 77.
As the National Weather Service says, this will be a multi-day heat event. And the models suggest several days of major heat risk across the lower elevations of NW Oregon and SW Washington away from the coast through Wednesday, with pockets of an extreme heat risk. Confidence is also growing that critical fire weather conditions will materialize in the Willamette Valley, particularly between Salem and Eugene on Sunday. There will be areas in the adjacent Coast Range foothills that meet Fire Weather Watch criteria also, but their main observing stations will likely not pick up on it.
So, having said all this, there is currently an Excessive Heat Watch for the Coast Range eastward valid from 8/14 at 11:00am thru 8/17 at 10:00pm. Add to this there is currently a Fire Weather Watch for the valley from Saturday afternoon through Monday evening. These could change between now and the end of next week, both for time and locations. Get ready NOW for this event, make a plan and be ready!