By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
A strong cold front went through overnight bringing anywhere from 1 to 1 ½” of rain and some breezy winds to the area. The cold air behind the front pushed the snow level down to near 1500’ so the summit did report snow and slush on the roads this morning that was breaking up, the temperature there at 7am was right at 32 degrees. It is likely that the summit will be seeing more snow as the showers move across, pushing the snow level down as low as 1200’ at times.
As the colder, more unstable air will continue to pour in, we will see showers pushing in from the northwest, some heavy with hail, and there is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms when we throw in daytime heating. The chance of showers with possible hail along with the chance of a thunderstorm or two will continue tonight as the air will remain unstable. The winds tonight are westerly 5-10, and the low temperature drops to near 35 which will put the snow level down near 1000’ with lower snow possible in heavier showers. I would say the chance of snow down to sea level overnight is not likely, but the chance is also not zero.
So, the area continues to see scattered showers tomorrow morning that turns to rain as a warm front approaches. As the cold upper level trough of low pressure continues to slide to the east, this also pushes the snow level up to near 1900’ in the afternoon, winds becoming southerly 8-12, the high temperature near 48. Tomorrow night the rain continues along with the breezy winds, now 15-20 gusting to 30, the overnight low near 41.
By Wednesday, we are watching the parent low pressure area that by then is off the coast of British Columbia, dropping down towards the area. This will push in a strong cold front that continues to bring in more rain with the winds becoming southwesterly 20-25, gusting to near 40 with gust to 50-55 possible at the beaches, the afternoon high temperature up near 52. The rain and winds continue Wednesday night, and the winds in town could be gusting to near 50. Winds at the beaches continue from the southwest 35-40 gusting to 50-55 also.
Thursday the front has moved though leaving showers with possible thunderstorms, still breezy, the snow level is falling once again, down to near 1700’ that afternoon, and continues to drop to around 1100’ that night. The afternoon high Thursday near 45, the overnight temperature drops to near 35 so that lower snow is possible once again in the heavier showers, and with the breezy winds still, the windchill temperature will be down in the upper 20s to near 30.
With the cold trough of low pressure continuing to influence the weather as it moves over the area, Friday morning we see more showers and possible thunderstorms, the high temperature again up around 45, but the overnight temperature could drop to near 33 which puts the snow level down to around 500-900’, again in heavier showers the snow level could fall even lower.
Saturday morning, at around sunrise, the snow level will be at its lowest and we have the best chance of low snow with the snow level down near 300-600’ with showers still in the area. The snow level does climb in the afternoon to near 1300’, but this means the passes are still looking at accumulating snow, the afternoon high near 46. The snow level drops again overnight to around 1000’ with the low temperature here around 34 degrees.
The snow level starts climbing again by Sunday, up around 1800’ by the afternoon with the high up near 48.
I should mention, with all the snow expected in the Coast Range, then throw in the rain, some minor river flooding is not out of the question by around Friday. Something to watch out for … again!
