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By Gordon McCraw, Meteorologist for the Tillamook County Pioneer
Well, it’s looking like this will be a very active week with several days of rain, winds, high seas and surf, thanks to several systems moving in. The big picture is we are on the western side of a large trough of low pressure centered off to the east that is putting us under a strong west to northwesterly flow aloft. This is pushing in moisture and giving us some patchy light rain in the form of showers today, even with a weak front that got pushed across this morning. We will see more showers tonight with light westerly winds, the low near 42.
Tomorrow starts out with scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies, the winds becoming westerly 4-8, highs near 43. By tomorrow night we are watching a developing low pressure area in the Pacific, off to the northwest, moving towards the coast that will be pushing in some rain by around midnight. This is associated with an approaching strong front, so we see scattered showers still before midnight, transitioning to rain after midnight, the winds becoming southwesterly 5-10 gusting to 20, overnight lows near 43.
The strong front is expected to bring in some moderate, occasionally heavy rain Wednesday, the winds southerly 14-18 gusting to near 30, with gusts to 50 possible at the beaches, highs near 54. The front pushes through that evening, then we transitions back to showers with some possible thunderstorms for the overnight hours, winds southerly 10-15 gusting to 25, lows near 42.
By Thursday, we see the low pressure area weakening and pushing towards the Washington Coast. This will likely rotate some disturbances under the low and into our area bring us more showers and possible thunderstorms along with breezy winds, highs near 52, lows near 42. The thunderstorm threat likely diminishes by around midnight with conditions changing as the previous low pressure area dissipates and another reforms off the northern California Coast.
So, Friday we see scattered showers that morning that become more isolated in the afternoon and evening before becoming more widely scattered Friday night, highs near 58, lows near 41.
Conditions continue to improve over the weekend with only a slight chance of showers still during the day Saturday, otherwise improving skies with Sunday looking sunny as a high pressure ridge builds in, high temperatures over the weekend up around 60, overnight lows near 40.
With the active weather including the strong front and low pressure areas Wednesday and Thursday bringing Gale Force Winds offshore, we will also see increasing seas with wave heights of 16-19’ bringing High Surf to the coast by Wednesday evening, persisting through Thursday. These conditions are also likely to bring increased Sneaker Wave hazards to the beaches during that period. As far as river flooding, with the 1-2” of rain expected from Wednesday through Friday, River Flooding is not expected.
