By Representative David Gomberg, House District 10
9/5/2023
Hello Neighbors and Friends,
Yesterday we honored and enjoyed Labor Day. So this report is coming to you on a Tuesday instead of the typical Monday. I’ll apologize in advance for the length. There is a lot to share regarding our economy, our schools, and our work to support local climate challenges.
This week, our state economists released their quarterly economic forecast. These regular reports provide information to planners and policymakers in state agencies and private organizations and are the basis for much of the budgeting in state government.
Sounds boring but it is important stuff and means money back in your pocket. Read on!
Generally, the forecast was very positive. Oregon businesses and Oregon workers are doing better than expected. Tax collections and wages are higher than before the COVID pandemic. Inflation remains high, though it slowed in recent months. The other message is that economists continue to be challenged to predict how the economy will perform in the future, which means the state brought in more money than expected.
Oregon is set to pay out a record-breaking $5.6 billion through the unique “kicker” rebate, which kicks in when revenues collected exceed official projections. Oregonians will receive money back when they file their 2023 tax returns next spring. The more you paid last year, the more you will get back. Oregonians can expect roughly 45% of the state personal income taxes they paid last year to be returned to them — about $980 for the median taxpayer.
They said Oregon is poised for economic gains through productivity improvements, particularly pending investments in semiconductors and other high technology. But they also said that Oregon may see fewer economic gains from population growth as deaths exceed births and the rate of people moving to Oregon matches the rate of those leaving the state, as measured by the surrender of out-of-state driver’s licenses. For the first time in four decades, Oregon recorded a net loss in population in 2022.
Here are some highlights from the forecast:
- Inflation has slowed to somewhere between 3% and 4%, which is a far cry from a year ago. But the Fed continues to want us down at 2%. That will mean further increases in interest rates, which could slow homebuilding and home purchasing.
- The economy may be reaccelerating, thanks to federal investments and improved business performance. Wages appear to be outpacing inflation. That’s good for overall standard of living, but there’s some fear that it could cause inflation to continue rising.
- After several quarters of unexpectedly rapid growth in tax collections, Oregon’s state revenue outlook appears to have stabilized. Collections in recent months have tracked closely with the May forecast.
- The federal investments in semiconductors and Oregon’s willingness to support those efforts through legislative appropriations appears to be paying off. Oregon is poised to benefit more than most states and can expect an increase in the number of highly paid, educated workers in this sector.
- Although we still can see the effects of a low birth rate here in Oregon (currently the fifth lowest in the nation, due in part to our relatively aged population), we are no longer seeing predictions of continued out-migration. Also, the general Portland area appears to have stabilized in population.
- Based on demographics alone, we can expect 10% fewer new schoolchildren in the coming years.
- Skyrocketing revenues from capital gains have slowed down considerably, again helping our growth to be more stable and predictable.
- We continue to see increases in revenues from corporate taxes. The Corporate Activities Tax (CAT), which funds our Student Success Act, continues to grow slowly.
- The corporate kicker, which goes into the K-12 State School Fund, will reach $1.8 billion.
- Oregon continues to build up record reserves in our Rainy-Day Fund, our Education Stability Fund, and our ending fund balances.
If you’d like to watch the full presentation, here’s the webpage for the meeting. Here are the PowerPoints from the Forecast presentation. Here are the forecast tables from the Legislative Revenue Office.
For ALL the details, go to the Office of Economic Analysis forecast web page.
Finally, the forecast acknowledges that different parts of Oregon face different economic circumstances. I often observe that wages in the metropolitan and high-tech centers greatly exceed those in rural and coastal Oregon.
Agricultural data fluctuates with seasonal harvests, and crop production had been on a slight downward trend in 2021 and 2022, possibly due to lower global commodity prices. Employment for both crop production and animal production has declined, compared to job gains for the state’s private sector overall. At the same time, average wages per worker have increased more for agricultural workers than for other private sector workers.
Scenic areas around the country have local economies with a larger travel and tourism component. If people from outside the area come to visit, they are going to need places to stay, food to eat, and activities to do. Those are lower-wage jobs. And many scenic areas are also highly desirable places to live. As such they have significantly worse housing affordability, and also more people working from home even before the pandemic.
There is clearly a wealth effect in many scenic areas with a discernable divide between households with very high incomes, and service or hospitality workers with lower incomes and housing and food insecurity.
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Our kids and grandkids are heading back to school! Ahead of this school year, we took action to make Oregon schools stronger, healthier and safer. Here’s what students, parents and guardians need to know:
During the 2023 Legislative Session, lawmakers made several key changes and investments that will make a positive impact for Oregon students, teachers, school faculty, and parents in the upcoming school year and beyond. These include record investments in school funding and early literacy programs, initiatives to support educators and solve the substitute teacher shortage, upgrades for healthier school ventilation systems, new school safety measures, protections for students with disabilities, and more.
Highlights include:
- Fully funding Oregon’s K-12 schools with record investments that will ensure students are set up for success in the classroom (House Bill 5015).
- Improving early reading skills in the classroom, which is shown to have long-term, positive impact on kids graduating from high school (House Bill 3198).
- Delivering cleaner air, heating and cooling in school buildings by upgrading school HVAC systems (House Bill 3031).
- Free or Reduced Cost School Meals for Low-Income Students (House Bill 5014)
- Attracting, retaining, and training talented educators and guaranteeing every kid graduates with basic life skills (Senate Bill 283).
- Making schools safer with silent panic alarm systems to alert law enforcement and emergency medical services when there is a threat at a school building (House Bill 5014).
- Notifying parents and school employees when there is an emergency at school (House Bill 3584).
- Enforcing students with disabilities’ right to a full-time education (Senate Bill 819).
- Providing age-appropriate preparation for natural disasters. (HB 2902)
With these solutions in place, Oregon schools will be stronger, healthier, and safer. To learn more about these efforts, click here.
With students around our district heading back to school, drivers can expect to see school buses on the road again. If you see flashing lights, you should stop before reaching the school bus. You’re required to remain stopped until the flashing lights turn off.
School buses have amber or red flashing lights near the top of the bus and on the front and rear of the bus. The flashing lights warn drivers that the bus is about to stop to pick up or drop off students. School buses also have a stop signal arm that may come down from the driver’s side window when the lights start to flash.
Here’s a more detailed look at when drivers are and aren’t required to stop for a school bus.
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Notice the difference between a divided roadway, a road with a median strip, and a road with a turning lane.
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Celebrating New Coastal and Ocean Investments in Oregon – Part Two
Two weeks ago, I detailed federal investments in climate and our coastal waters. But of course, the State of Oregon is doing our part as well.
In June, the Oregon Legislature passed a landmark Climate Resilience Budget Framework that not only invests $90 million in climate resilience efforts statewide but will also be used to begin attracting nearly $1 billion in federal funding.
The Climate Resilience Budget Framework includes investments to help make our state’s residential and commercial buildings more energy-efficient, funds to develop community-resilience hubs for emergency preparedness, and funds for more robust wildfire resilience across the State. As well, the Framework provides continued investments in Oregon’s Solar & Storage Rebate Program, the Community Renewable Energy Grant Program, and the Natural & Working Lands Fund – an effort I was proud to lend my support to this legislative session in an effort to promote natural climate solutions on our working lands for biological carbon sequestration.
Over the past six months, I sponsored and passed HB 2914 to establish a dedicated fund and program for the retrieval and disposal of abandoned and derelict vessels languishing in our State’s waterways. I also led the effort to expand our successful Marine Reserves Program on our coast. While funding did not materialize for the expansion of the Marine Reserves program this last legislative session, I certainly haven’t given up. Moving forward, I will be communicating with the Governor’s Natural Resources team to begin exploring how we can fix the missed opportunity to better support our Marine Reserves in 2024. I’ll also be advocating for and promoting other ocean policy issues that the Ocean Policy Advisory Commission has recommended as I begin to formulate my legislative priorities for the 2024 short legislative session.
I also helped advocate for a number of successful conservation, environmental, and toxic-free interests over the last two sessions, including holding fuel operators responsible for developing seismic resilience plans for their fuel storage, establishing environmental standards for the landing of undersea network cables, funding for the study of ocean acidification and hypoxia, overhauling our State’s recycling system, and implementing producer responsibility rules for plastic-waste polluters. I was also very proud to lend my ‘yes’ vote to HB 2021 two years ago to get our State moving toward a 100% below baseline target of greenhouse gas emission by 2040.
This session, I was also proud to support and co-sponsor HB 3043, which directs the Oregon Health Authority to begin regulating potentially toxic chemicals in children’s products and SB 543, which prohibits food vendors from using Styrofoam packaging for prepared food in Oregon.
I often opine that good work of global consequence is happening every day at the research hub south of Newport. If we are going to address the climate challenge, ocean warming, acidification, fishing and energy, those advances will come from Hatfield, the Marine Science Center, NOAA and PacWave. The central coast of Oregon is quickly emerging as the leading region addressing climate and changing ocean science.
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As I said in the first of these two reports, new ocean-climate investments in Oregon’s coast and communities demonstrate the kind of opportunities we have to fight and adapt to climate change and be better stewards of our lands and natural resources. We owe our gratitude to ocean climate action champions in our legislature and Congress who fought for these investments. Taking action gives us hope for a just and livable future where our communities and our citizens cannot just survive, but thrive, in a changing climate.
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Finally, let’s return to some thoughts on economic development.
I said earlier that different parts of Oregon face different economic circumstances. You may be interested to see who our largest employers and taxpayers are locally.
I certainly recognize that our district includes more than just Lincoln County. But Lincoln is home to most of our residents and is the only county entirely within the district. That means county-wide numbers tell us something.
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Check out the “County Profile” maintained by the Economic Development Alliance of Lincoln County for a snapshot of population statistics, the number of seniors, veterans, or high school/college graduates, driving time to work, average income, average rent, number of kids in our schools, or largest taxpayers. Did you know mining is one of our top three wage-paying industries? I didn’t.
Lots to read and learn here!
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It’s been another busy week in the District with stops in Florence, Tiny Tranquility, Yachats, Waldport, Seal Rock, Depoe Bay and Otis.
With Labor Day looming, I joined SEIU workers in Toledo as they prepared for contract negotiations with the Council of Governments.
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Tuesday I helped unveil a new park in Lincoln City. We brought home money for this regional sports facility along with funds for the Cultural Center Plaza, a new Welcome Center at the Wayside, and housing/homeless shelters throughout the city. North County is transforming and I’m proud to be a part of the change.
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As you know, Susan and I spent three decades in the kite business and flew large “show kites” around the world. When we retired the business, we still had a few large pieces left.
Since Lincoln City now uses the Octopus as their official logo, we decided to present our last giant 130-foot Octopus kite to the Parks Department. During Tuesday’s celebration, we stretched it out across the field. Thanks to Dave Prive for the drone photo from high above.
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There was a crowd on hand Thursday as we cut the ribbon on the new and improved Grocery Outlet store.
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And just to show you that we clean up well, Susie and I were at the benefit dinner for the Siletz Bay Music Festival Saturday night.
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Several meetings are on the calendar next week regarding Beaver Creek aerial spraying. I also have discussions with Oregonians for Food and Shelter, the Nurseries Association, Samaritan Hospitals, DEQ regarding seafood processing, the Coastal Caucus, and Lincoln County Economic Development.
Thursday we plan to climb Cascade Head to look at landslides on the Forest Service Road there blocking access to a popular hiking trail.
Saturday, I’ll be in Monroe for the First Responders Appreciation Event and Philomath to discuss Community Services and robotics production. I’ll be back to attend the Otis Strong gathering and the 2020 wildfire anniversary.
As always, I hope to see you out there somewhere.
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email: Rep.DavidGomberg@oregonlegislature.gov
phone: 503-986-1410
address: 900 Court St NE, H-480, Salem, OR, 97301
website: http://www.oregonlegislature.gov/gomberg
