NEWS UPDATE FROM STATE REPRESENTATIVE DAVID GOMBERG: The Kicker Kicks

By State Representative David Gomberg
Dear Neighbors and Friends,

I have written before about the difficulty of accurately estimating how our economy will perform in the future in the face of pandemics, wildfires, global conflicts, changing gas prices, labor shortages, and unstable supply chains. But like any enterprise, Oregon has to estimate income to plan for spending. Under Oregon law, when tax revenue exceeds estimates, the surplus is returned to taxpayers.

Last week, the State’s Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) confirmed revenue exceeded original estimates by more than $5.61 billion in the 2021-2023 biennium, triggering a tax credit, or “kicker”, for the 2023 tax year. In a news release, OEA said this was “the largest in state history.”

The kicker will be returned to taxpayers through a credit on their 2023 state personal income tax returns filed in 2024. The credit is based on tax liability for the 2022 tax year. Taxpayers who have not yet filed a 2022 tax return, should file now so they can claim their kicker credit when they file their 2023 tax return.

What does this mean for you?

I have been fascinated for months by reports that most Oregon families will receive thousands of dollars back on their taxes. In February, the Oregon Catalyst reported “The average Oregon taxpayer will be receiving an estimated $5,200 income tax refund in 2024!! (That’s not a typo!) If you are an Oregon taxpayer who makes the average annual wage you may be getting a $5,200 refund when you file your taxes in 2024.” That number was also circulated by some state officials.

But is it accurate??

Generally, here is an overview of how much Oregonians can expect in their kicker tax credit.

*Estimates are based on 2020 actual tax returns, $5.6 billion kicker amount, and the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecast tax liability.Personal income taxpayers can determine the actual amount of their kicker using a “What’s My Kicker?” calculator available at Revenue Online (look for the link in the “Individuals” section). To use the calculator, taxpayers will need to enter their name, Social Security Number (or Taxpayer ID, and filing status (single or joint) for 2022 and 2023.

Taxpayers may also hand-calculate the amount of their credit, by multiplying their 2022 tax liability before any credits—line 22 on the 2022 Form OR-40—by 44.28 percent. This percentage is determined and certified by OEA. Taxpayers who claimed a credit for tax paid to another state would need to subtract the credit amount from their liability before calculating the credit.
The state may use all or part of a taxpayer’s kicker to pay any state debt they owe, such as tax due for other years, child support, court fines, or school loans.
Future kickers will likely not be as large as this one as a result of methodology changes being implemented by OEA. Basically, they are working to become more accurate.I get letters every week about kicker reform. Some write to say, “don’t take my kicker!”. Others argue the money could be better spent on roads, schools, healthcare, wildfires, or simply sent to savings for years when the economy is not as strong. My response to all is the same.Changing the kicker, ultimately, is not up to the legislature, but to the voters of Oregon. It is part of the Constitution and only voters can adjust or remove it. And if – IF – that were to be proposed, it would not happen in time to affect the kicker you will see in 2024.Like the kicker? Spend it well! Hate the kicker? Give it back to the state or to a qualified charity!Taxpayers may choose to donate their kicker to the Oregon State School Fund for K-12 public education using a checkbox on their return. The donation is for 100 percent of a taxpayer’s kicker and may not be revoked if selected. Taxpayers may also choose to donate all or part of their kicker to any or all of the 29 charities approved by the Charitable Checkoff Commission. Taxpayers use Form OR-DONATE to designate any amount, or all of their refund, to donate to charity.
The filing season for 2023 Oregon Income Tax returns will open in mid-January 2024. The department will begin making any refund payments owed to taxpayers in mid-February 2024. The timing of return processing and refund payments will depend on the date filed by a taxpayer, completeness of a return, volume of returns, refund amount, and other factors.

The Ford Family Foundation has finished its annual snapshot of the state’s well-being, “Oregon by the Numbers.” I always find this an excellent tool for reviewing our condition and comparing us to other parts of the state.

Information is broken down by county. Our district includes all of Lincoln County and the western portions of Benton and Lane. Looking at Lincoln tells us a lot about our district. Looking at Benton and Lane tells us a lot about those counties but not as much about our district since we include only more rural portions. *EDITOR’S NOTE: And here’s a link to FFF By the Numbers for Tillamook County.

Here are just a few snippets about Lincoln:

Median Household Income is $54,961 – the State median is $70,084.
42% of households are “in Financial Hardship”.
15.4% of residents experience food insecurity – compared to 9.8% statewide.
Index crime per 1,000 residents is 24.6 – lower than the state’s 30.4. That is interesting since we have so many visitors that may skew the number “per resident”.
Voter participation, at 67.5%, is just a smidge higher than the state’s total.
Vehicle miles traveled per person, 7,868, is nearly double urban areas’ average of 4,206 (my frequent commutes from home in Otis to Waldport, Newport, Philomath, and Monroe could be pushing the county’s average up. Sorry about that!).
95% of students in 9th grade are on track to graduate – almost 15 points higher than the state average.
Property tax per person is $2,430, compared to $1,767 statewide. Remember that a lot of the highest-value properties in the county are owned by residents of other counties and states, thus driving our per-capita numbers up.

I pulled numbers for our three counties and some statewide and regional comparisons. Remember that our district includes rural portions of western Lane and Benton.

Here are some further details for our three counties:

As always, it’s an interesting read. And the website offers easy links to downloads of past years’ documents, making comparisons against past years an easy exercise. We appreciate all the Ford Family Foundation does for rural Oregon, and this is but one example of that work. The Ford Family Foundation is headquartered in Roseburg and is focused on the power of rural communities. In 1957, during the height of the timber industry in southern Oregon and northern California, Kenneth W. Ford and Hallie E. Ford, the entrepreneurs behind Roseburg Lumber (later Roseburg Forest Products) founded a charitable foundation to give back to the people and communities who helped build their successful company. The Foundation grew in size, scope, and geography to become The Ford Family Foundation in 1996 with the mission of “successful citizens and vital rural communities.”

Researchers from Oregon State’s Marine Mammal Institute in Newport may have an answer to the troubling wasting and deaths of our gray whales.

Over the past four years, hundreds of gray whales have washed up dead on the beaches of Mexico, the U.S. and Canada, most of them skinny and malnourished – and scientists have been trying to figure out what’s causing the majestic animals to die en masse for so many years.

The die-offs, according to a study published this week in the journal Science, follow changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean – namely, declines in sea ice cover that lead to a dearth of the crustaceans that gray whales love to eat. And when the ice periodically returns, it restricts the animals’ access to feeding grounds, so the whales have even less to eat, the researchers found.

A dead baby gray whale lies on the beach at Oregon’s Fort Stevens State Park in January 2023. It was the third whale to wash up on Oregon’s coast this winter.

Over the past five years, 688 stranded gray whales have been recorded in Mexico, the U.S. and Canada, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries, also known as the National Marine Fisheries Service. Scientists say that’s just a fraction of the total number of dead whales because most sink to the seafloor.

Scientists estimate the gray whale population has declined by almost half, to about 14,500 whales as of last winter . The issue vaulted into local consciousness earlier this year when several whales – both gray and sperm whales – washed ashore in Oregon. NOAA tracks whale beachings, including in Oregon and Southwest Washington, and the agency has counted 233 of them along those coasts since 1989.

In more whale news, a rare blue whale skeleton could be ready for display at the Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport as early as the end of 2023.

The whale carcass washed ashore in 2015 near Gold Beach, the first known beached blue whale in Oregon in more than 200 years. A team of 45 OSU students, staff and faculty and local volunteers dismembered and salvaged the bones, then transported them to Newport. A necropsy indicated the whale had starved. The bones were stored in makeshift bags repurposed from fishing nets and lowered by crane into Yaquina Bay, where they were anchored to the seafloor. For three years, divers monitored the remains, which, cleaned of the flesh, were removed from the water in 2019.

The collection then went to Dinosaur Valley Studios in Alberta, Canada, for cleaning, repairs, and mounting. It will come back to us soon!

The skeleton will be more than 70 feet long and 20 feet wide, the size of a semi tractor. The plan is to display the articulated skeleton by the new Gladys Valley Marine Studies Building on the Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center campus.

Earlier this year, I introduced House Bill 2914 in an effort to address boats and vessels dumped and abandoned in our state waterways.

Cleaning spills and getting those boats out of the water is expensive. And under previous rules, the money came from our Common School Fund. It made no sense to me that the cost of cleaning up rotting boats should come from our kids and our classrooms.

My bill created a new fund and about $18 million to support it was added in House Bill 5029 with funds from the Monsanto settlement the giant multinational chemical company paid for PCB contamination throughout Oregon.

The Oregon Department of State Lands (DSL) reports that the first hazardous vessel has been removed this week from the Columbia River using newly approved funding.

The FV Tiffany, a 200-ton former fishing vessel built in 1939, became a hazard when it sank and spilled fuel into the Columbia River near Rainer in 2021. “The FV Tiffany wasn’t just an eyesore,” said Department of State Lands (DSL) Interim Deputy Director Chris Castelli. “More significantly this ship was a vehicle for toxins going into the Columbia River.”

DSL said it first looks at having the boat owners pay for cleanups. In this case, it cost $1.42 million for the FV Tiffany. The Department of State Lands is looking at options to recover the expenses.

I’m pleased to see bills I author quickly begin to make a difference. Next spring the State Land Board will receive a report that addresses prevention, response, enforcement, education and outreach, and potential long-term funding needs and sources, as well as recommendations for legislative action in the 2025 Legislative Session.

The first hazardous vessel removed from Columbia River, the FV Tiffany. A landmark move for Oregon’s new environmental program. Photo courtesy The Oregon Department of State Lands.

Saturday Susie and I went to Corvallis to watch OSU thump UCLA. We were guests of President Jayathi Murthy. The president and I had a heartfelt conversation about the future of OSU athletics with most schools leaving the Pac-12 for more lucrative media opportunities.

President Murthy, Susan, and myself at the game Saturday. Note my rare OSU Newport sweatshirt!

Monday, the People’s Coast Summit convenes in Astoria. I’ll be in Salem Tuesday and meeting Wednesday with the Central Lincoln PUD. I’ll also join the Lincoln County Economic Resilience Team Monthly Meeting.

Thursday I address the Philomath Chamber of Commerce, join the Oregon Agricultural Trust in Corvallis in the afternoon, and finish the day at a reception with the Newport Chamber and a meeting on homelessness in Toledo.

I’ll be back in Newport Friday for a ribbon cutting and then spend time with some good folks who bought “Lunch with Gomberg” at the recent Symphony auction.