EDITOR’S NOTE: Update – 6:30 pm – the predictions have changed considerably since this morning’s report. See above for the latest on the the Nehalem River, now predicted to go above flood stage. We will have an additional information tomomrrow, Friday December 1, 2023.
By Gordon McCraw
The pattern change has started! We had the first in a series of systems bring in some mainly light rain this morning as it pushes eastward. We can expect to see the rain continue tonight with the winds becoming southerly 8-12 gusting to 18, tonight’s low temperature around 39.
It looks like we will see an atmospheric river develop and push in some rain starting tomorrow morning in the form of showers with possible thunderstorms. It will also usher in some stronger westerly winds of 14-18 gusting to 30, the high up near 52. We see more of the same tomorrow night, then just before midnight, another system pushes in another round of rain, the winds shifting to southerly 15-20 gusting to 35, lows near 43. Rainfall totals for Friday could reach 1” to 2”, especially in the Coast Range. Thankfully, the river levels are low at this point so the hydrological concerns here are low.
The concern does increase some over the weekend as it looks like the rain will continue Saturday and Sunday as another atmospheric river impacts the area. This will increase the flow rates, further increasing the river levels, but all should still stay well below Action and Flood Stage. Winds will still be elevated also with gusts Sunday as high as 35-40, with periods of heavy rain that could cause Urban and Small Stream Flooding also.
To add to the wetness, the models are suggesting a third atmospheric river moves in for the start of next week, but they don’t all agree on exactly where the hose, or area of highest rainfall, will be located. As we have learned over the years of forecasting for the coast, on Mother Natures map, 70 miles north or south is nothing, but along the coast it can make the difference between high river levels, or flooding river levels. What we can say for sure is Monday on through midweek will be rainy, possibly heavy at times, and breezy to windy. The National Weather Service folks say there is a 10-20% chance of River Flooding north of Lincoln City. I will say the latest Nehalem River Forecast has actually lowered the crest level by around 2’ over the previous Forecasts. The best guidance I can offer at this time is to start thinking about your flooding plans in case the guidance changes for the worse, especially if you live or work in flood prone areas or would need to travel through those flood prone areas. It is always better to develop a plan ahead of an incident than to try to make a plan during the incident. It is definitely time to keep a closer eye on the forecasts, including the River Level Forecasts!
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