So, this first week of December has been a doozie. We have had, not just a string of fronts, but a series of associated atmospheric rivers. As you may recall, we had the first in this series on December 2nd, followed by another on December 4th, then the one yesterday, December 5th. Yes, this did bring us quite a bit of rain, for the period of December 1s t- 5th, Nehalem recorded 9.05”, Tillamook, 8.4”, Pacific City 5.83”, Bay City 5.37”, and Netarts 5.16”. In the Coast Range 17 miles up, 13.38”, Lees Camp 10.40”, Mt Hebo 8.81”, and up at the Summit 6.3”. Yes, all this rain eventually led to river flooding. Lastly, the rainfall winner, if that is what you want to call it, was Mt. Saint Helens that got 16.3” of rain from the 1st.
The rivers have all crested and should all be below Flood Stage late this morning or early afternoon. The Nehalem River crested at 15.9’, Flood Stage is 15’. The Wilson River crested at 16.1’, Flood is 12.0’ putting it above Moderate Flood Stage of 15.5’. The Trask River crested at 17.01’, just above Flood Stage of 16.5’. The Nestucca River reached 15.9 which is below Flood Stage, 18.0’.
So, the atmosphere river remains stalled over the area this morning, but fortunately, the rainfall has been light which is allowing the river to continue to recede. We do expect that the front will start to inch eastward soon which will further help recovery from the flooding and allow the cleanup to start. To further help push the front out, a trough of low pressure is expected to drop down toward the area this afternoon. So, for today, we will continue to see some rain, mainly light rain, with westerly winds 4-8, the afternoon high near 54. The rain will further ease tonight, but then post-frontal showers takes its place by midnight, and thanks to the instability from the trough, thunderstorms are possible, winds becoming southeasterly 5-10, lows near 42.
Tomorrow, we continue to have showers with possible thunderstorms, winds now westerly 8-12, highs near 49, more showers with possible thunderstorms tomorrow night as the trough moves across, the snow level falling to near 2700’ which means the higher Coast Range mountains will get some snow, the low dropping to near 38.
Still a few showers around Friday, the snow level around 2500’, then fewer showers Friday night, the snow level near 2400’, lows near 38 again.
Unfortunately, it looks like another front pushes in the rain again Saturday into Sunday. This one will also have an area of increased moisture headed towards the coast, the problem is that the models haven’t decided what part of the coast this area will dump on, and exactly when. Previously it was suggesting more towards the south coast, but the new guidance has shifted this more toward the central and north coast area. Whoever gets this one looks to get another ½” to 1 ½” of rain with 1 to 2 ½” of rain expected in the Coast Range. More to follow on this one later this week!
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